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September 7, 2010

Timing is everything in Kentucky politics

TheTimesTribune.com, Corbin, KY

CORBIN — Kentucky is in the middle of a nationally watched U.S. Senate race but the week’s news was dominated by the announcement that David Williams and Richie Farmer have formed a ticket to run for governor next year. Meanwhile, fears are growing the sluggish economic recovery is in trouble and the voter mood continues to sour.

For Democrats there are troubling numbers regarding the 2010 elections. For the first time since polling began in 1942, Republicans have a 10-point lead in the “generic” preference poll – would voters prefer an un-named Republican over an un-named Democrat? The same polling indicates Republican voters are twice as likely to vote in this year’s mid-term elections, a so-called “enthusiasm gap.” Privately, Republicans say their polling shows an even greater gap in both categories. President Barack Obama’s support continues to slide nationally (it’s even worse in Kentucky) and Republicans want the election to be a referendum on Obama and his policies.

Still, Republican Senate candidate Rand Paul created an unlikely opening for his Democratic opponent Jack Conway with statements questioning the seriousness of the drug issue. (He contends he was misquoted, but the Associated Press reporter who wrote that Paul said the problem “is not a real pressing issue” has a recording with Paul’s comments which backs up his published story.) Earlier this summer, after several other controversial comments by Paul, my visits with voters outside of Frankfort indicated they were having little or no impact on the campaign. The drug issue may be different.

That’s because it illustrates a contrast between the theoretical appeal of Paul’s limited government philosophy and practical reality on the ground. The real implications of the loss of federal funds to combat the drug problem are easily seen by the voters who live in affected communities. Conway continues to hammer Paul on the issue but he needs to use it to prompt voters to question how Paul’s philosophy might affect them in other aspects of their daily lives.

On Wednesday, Paul visited the Big Rivers Electrical Corporation in Henderson to tout coal and highlight his opposition to cap and trade legislation. Big Rivers began as a generating cooperative, created and built with government funds supplied by the Rural Electrification Administration and owned by customer co-ops. REA, and later its successor, the Rural Utilities Service, operated out of the U.S. Department of Agriculture which Paul has criticized for funding wasteful programs. REA brought electrical and telephone service to rural America when it was not profitable for private companies to offer service to sparsely populated areas. Big Rivers was the brain child of powerful political figures who provided decades of support and patronage. Those cheap electrical rates and the aluminum smelters they attracted were the product of taxpayer loan subsidies and political patronage as well as Kentucky’s cheap coal.

But the mood of voters is a bigger factor in this year’s election than history or facts. Williams and Farmer are hopeful that mood lasts through next year’s gubernatorial election. Unless the economy turns around, it probably will. Williams, whose fingerprints are all over recent state budgets laden with debt and who has been the key figure in the Frankfort political establishment for the past 10 years, may have a harder time making the argument for change than the first-time candidate Paul.

But if the mood doesn’t improve, Gov. Steve Beshear may also have a hard time painting Williams as part of the problem. Just look at those poll numbers. Ask Jack Conway. Ask Trey Grayson. Sometimes timing is everything.

Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort, Ky. He may be contacted by email at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.

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