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May 17, 2010

Some things to watch early Tuesday night

The Times-Tribune

CORBIN — In a couple of days we’ll have answers to more questions than just who will be the two nominees for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Jim Bunning.

We’ll know whose polls were the most accurate, both independent polls which differ in margin and internal campaign polls which disagree on who is leading. We’ll know — at least we’ll get an indication — whether endorsements matter. We’ll know who had the better “ground games” and got their voters to the polls (something those trailing in the polls always claim make the difference). Maybe we’ll understand why so few people seem interested in a Senate race with two hotly contested primaries.

But if you can’t wait until the official results are in, here are some things to watch early Tuesday night (courtesy of someone who knows more about elections than I do). First, you can keep up with the results on the state Board of Elections website (www.elect.ky.gov). The site uses new software that provides more detailed information than in the past — but there could be delays as county officials use it for the first time.

On the Republican side, watch for turnout and early returns from the “Old Fifth,” especially counties like Laurel, Pulaski, Whitley, Clay and Knox. Perhaps a third of the total Republican vote will come from there. Trey Grayson needs big margins in Congressman Hal Rogers’ area and Republican heartland. If he doesn’t get them, he’s in trouble. Then watch the three northern Kentucky counties of Boone, Campbell and Kenton. That’s Grayson’s home turf, but Rand Paul is expected to do well there because he’s been endorsed by Bunning. Fayette and Jefferson counties are mostly Democratic, but there are still a lot of Republican votes there.

It’s supposed to be an urban versus rural battle between Democrats Jack Conway and Daniel Mongiardo. Mogiardo is expected to have the better organization and get out the vote effort and a low turnout might be to his advantage. He’s supposed to roll up big margins in his home area of eastern Kentucky. But watch how Conway does in Floyd and Pike counties. House Speaker Greg Stumbo is from Floyd and former Gov. Paul Patton from Pike and both support Conway.

Conway looks to roll up big numbers in his home area of Jefferson County, counting on those to offset Mongiardo in rural eastern and western Kentucky. But watch the west end. Mongiardo is supported by state Sen. Gerald Neal and labor groups may help him in other parts of the county. (The new state Board of Elections vote tracking system will allow you to check color coded maps in many counties using the newest voting systems, including Jefferson, so you can watch specific precincts as votes come in.)

If the outcome isn’t clear by then, it could be a long night as precincts from western Kentucky in the central time zone report. Conway has been endorsed by former Sen. Wendell Ford from Daviess County and his father grew up in Union County. But Mongiardo has a strong core of support in western Kentucky from his run against Bunning six years ago.  That year, Mongiardo led throughout most of the evening — until those western Kentucky counties pushed Bunning over the finish line. Mongiardo has worked that region hard to see it doesn’t happen again.

Whoever wins, Tuesday’s results will produce new questions for the fall. It should be an unusually good year for the annual Fancy Farm picnic and an equally interesting general election. 

Ronnie Ellis writes for CNHI News Service and is based in Frankfort, Ky. He may be contacted by email at rellis@cnhi.com. Follow CNHI News Service stories on Twitter at www.twitter.com/cnhifrankfort.

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